readme

README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,154 @@
+# Wings of Unrest: Flight Connectivity and Social Instability Research
+
+A quantitative research project investigating the relationship between global air connectivity and social unrest across 2,620 cities worldwide.
+
+## Overview
+
+This study explores whether cities with greater flight connectivity experience systematically different levels of protest activity compared to less connected urban areas. Using a Negative Binomial regression model, the analysis reveals that increased air connectivity is significantly associated with higher frequencies of unrest events (p < 0.001), explaining approximately 32% of the deviance.
+
+## Key Findings
+
+- **Air connectivity** positively correlates with protest frequency (each additional flight → 0.41% increase in expected events)
+- **Population served** by airports shows strong positive association with unrest
+- **Unemployment** and **freedom of expression** are positively associated with protest intensity
+- **HDI** and **land area** exhibit negative associations with unrest
+- Model pseudo R² = 0.323, suggesting moderate explanatory power
+
+## Dataset
+
+The analysis combines multiple authoritative data sources:
+
+- **Air connectivity**: OpenFlights (2014 direct flight data)
+- **Social unrest**: ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, June 2020 - April 2025)
+- **Economic indicators**: World Bank (GDP per capita, unemployment, land area)
+- **Development metrics**: UNDP (HDI, life expectancy, education)
+- **Political measures**: V-Dem (freedom of expression, civil society indices)
+
+**Final dataset**: 2,620 cities from 191 countries
+
+## Methodology
+
+### Data Processing Pipeline
+
+1. **Spatial matching**: Cities linked to airports within 50km radius using Haversine distance
+2. **Service score calculation**: `score = departures / (distance + 1)` to weight airport assignment
+3. **Event geocoding**: Protest events mapped to nearest city with same country constraint
+4. **Country standardization**: Harmonized country names across all datasets
+
+### Statistical Model
+
+Negative Binomial regression (handles overdispersion in count data):
+
+```
+log(E[Number_of_Events]) = β₀ + β₁(Flights) + β₂(Population) + β₃(Land_area)
+                           + β₄(Unemployment) + β₅(Freedom_Expression) + β₆(HDI)
+```
+
+## Project Structure
+
+```
+FlightUnrestResearch/
+├── Data/                      # Raw datasets (airports, routes, ACLED, V-Dem, etc.)
+├── clean_data.csv            # Final processed dataset for analysis
+├── clean_data.ipynb          # Data cleaning and preparation pipeline
+├── haversine.py              # Geospatial distance calculations (PyTorch-accelerated)
+├── mappings.py               # Country name standardization mappings
+├── FINAL_r_reg_final.ipynb   # Statistical analysis (Negative Binomial regression)
+├── final_paper.pdf           # Complete research paper with literature review
+└── final_paper.odt           # Source document
+```
+
+## Core Components
+
+### `haversine.py`
+PyTorch-accelerated geospatial functions for large-scale spatial assignments:
+- `calculate_served_population()`: Assigns city populations to airports using weighted scoring
+- `assign_events_to_cities()`: Maps protest events to nearest cities via Haversine distance
+
+### `clean_data.ipynb`
+Complete data pipeline:
+- Merges flight routes with airport locations
+- Calculates served populations within 50km radius
+- Geocodes 428K+ ACLED events to cities
+- Integrates World Bank, V-Dem, and HDI indicators
+- Handles missing data and country name harmonization
+
+### `FINAL_r_reg_final.ipynb`
+Statistical analysis in R:
+- Negative Binomial regression model
+- Multicollinearity diagnostics (VIF analysis)
+- Model fit evaluation (pseudo R², deviance)
+- Coefficient interpretation and significance testing
+
+## Requirements
+
+### Python
+```
+pandas
+numpy
+torch
+openpyxl
+tqdm
+```
+
+### R
+```
+MASS (for glm.nb)
+```
+
+## Usage
+
+### 1. Data Preparation
+```bash
+jupyter notebook clean_data.ipynb
+```
+Outputs: `clean_data.csv` with all variables merged and geocoded
+
+### 2. Statistical Analysis
+```bash
+jupyter notebook FINAL_r_reg_final.ipynb
+```
+Runs regression model and produces coefficient tables
+
+## Key Variables
+
+| Variable | Description | Source |
+|----------|-------------|--------|
+| `Number_of_Flights` | Total direct flights at city airports | OpenFlights |
+| `Number_of_Events` | Protest/riot incidents (Jun 2020-Apr 2025) | ACLED |
+| `Served_Population` | Population within 50km of airports | Cities database + calculation |
+| `GDP_per_capita` | National GDP per capita (2019) | World Bank |
+| `Unemployment` | National unemployment rate (2019) | World Bank |
+| `HDI` | Human Development Index | UNDP |
+| `Freedom_of_Expression` | Civil liberties index (2021) | V-Dem |
+| `Civil_Society_Index` | Civil society strength (2021) | V-Dem |
+
+## Limitations
+
+- **Cross-sectional design**: Cannot establish causality
+- **Temporal mismatch**: Flight data (2014) vs. protest data (2020-2025)
+- **Measurement error**: Potential ACLED under-reporting in authoritarian contexts
+- **National-level controls**: HDI, unemployment applied uniformly within countries
+- **Spatial uncertainty**: 50km radius may misrepresent complex metro areas
+- **Data access**: High-resolution aviation data remains proprietary
+
+## Citation
+
+Bitton, R. (2025). *Wings of Unrest: The Relationship Between Global Flight Connectivity and Social Instability*.
+
+## Related Research
+
+This work contributes to literature on:
+- Globalization and domestic political contention
+- Infrastructure networks and protest diffusion
+- Urban political dynamics and global integration
+- Spatial determinants of collective action
+
+## Contact
+
+Raphael Bitton
+rbitton@uchicago.edu
+
+## License
+
+Research data sourced from publicly available datasets. Analysis code available for academic use.